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中期新規取引現物

SOLSOL 中期 AI分析

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SOL/USDT Medium-Term Market Analysis

1. Summary

SOL/USDT is currently in a bearish phase across both the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, with a higher number of sell signals than buy signals. The price has been struggling to hold key support levels, and indicators suggest further downside potential unless a strong reversal occurs.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

1-Hour Timeframe:

  • Bearish Dominance: Out of 54 indicators, 31 signals are sell, 11 are buy, and 12 are neutral.
  • Key Bearish Indicators:
    • ADX (36.24) – Strong trend (bearish).
    • MACD (-1.11) – Negative momentum.
    • EMA (9 < 20) – Short-term weakness.
    • RSI (38.20) – Approaching oversold but not yet extreme.
    • DMI (-DI > +DI) – Bearish momentum.
  • Mixed Signals:
    • CCI (-116.07) – Oversold but not confirmed.
    • Supertrend (160.12, direction up) – Still bullish but near breakdown.

4-Hour Timeframe:

  • Stronger Bearish Bias: 30 sell signals vs. 11 buy signals.
  • Key Observations:
    • ADX (24.84) – Moderate trend strength (bearish).
    • MACD (-1.66) – Negative momentum.
    • EMA (9 < 20) – Confirms downtrend.
    • RSI (37.03) – Neutral but leaning bearish.
    • Supertrend (153.82, direction up) – Still bullish but weakening.

3. Price Analysis

  • Current Price: ~$165.25 (1H close).
  • Recent Trend: Downtrend from ~$172 to $165, with lower highs and lower lows.
  • Volume: Higher volume on down moves, indicating selling pressure.
  • Short-Term Outlook: Bearish unless price reclaims $167 (key resistance).

4. Support and Resistance Levels

Key Levels (1H & 4H):

  • Support:
    • $164.00 (Recent low, psychological level).
    • $160.00 (Strong support, Supertrend level).
  • Resistance:
    • $167.28 (EMA20, 1H).
    • $169.00 (Previous swing high).
    • $172.00 (Major resistance, 4H).

5. Medium-Term Outlook

  • Bearish Continuation Likely: If price breaks below $164, next target is $160.
  • Potential Reversal: If SOL holds $160 and reclaims $167, a short-term bounce toward $170-172 is possible.
  • Trend Confirmation Needed: A break above $172 would invalidate the bearish structure.

6. Risk Factors

  • Market Sentiment: If Bitcoin (BTC) weakens further, SOL may follow.
  • Liquidity Zones: Watch for stop hunts below $164 or above $167.
  • False Breakouts: Volatility could trigger fakeouts before a clear trend.

Final Thoughts

SOL/USDT is in a bearish phase, but oversold conditions could lead to a short-term bounce. Traders should watch $164 (support) and $167 (resistance) for directional clues. A break below $160 could accelerate selling, while reclaiming $172 would shift bias to bullish.

Recommendation: Wait for confirmation before entering new positions—either a breakdown below $164 or a reversal above $167.

Note: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading.